What do July Fourth standings in baseball really tell us?

The tradition in baseball is that the team in first place on the Fourth of July is the team that will end the season there. It doesn’t always work that way, of course, but Independence Day is a good time to measure up.Historically, though, what can we learn from the July Fourth standings? Looking at every possible lead in the standings — from a tie to 21 games ahead — on the morning of America’s national holiday, here's what wound up happening: MORE: How last 10 World Series champs stood at halfway markTie: 2014 Blue Jays and Orioles — Blue Jays missed playoffs, Orioles won division 0.5 games: 2014 Braves and 2014 Dodgers — Braves missed playoffs, Dodgers won division1 game: 2015 Yankees — wild card1.5 games: 2011 Yankees — won division2 games: 2013 Pirates — wild card2.5 games: 2013 Diamondbacks — missed playoffs3 games: 2015 Dodgers — won division3.5 games: 2015 Nationals — missed p

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layoffs4 games: 2011 Phillies — won division4.5 games: 2015 Royals — won World Series5 games: 2015 Astros — wild card5.5 games: 2007 Brewers — missed playoffs6 games: 2015 Cardinals — won division6.5 games: 2002 Twins — won division7 games: 2013 Braves — won division7.5 games: 2009 Dodgers — won division8 games: 2000 Cardinals — won division8.5 games: 2005 White Sox — won World Series9 games: 1990 Reds — won World Series9.5 games: 2002 Braves — won division10 games: 1998 Yankees — won World Series10.5 games: 2006 Mets — won division11 games: 2007 Red Sox — won World Series11.5 games: 1955 Dodgers — won World Series12.5 games: 1986 Mets — won World Series13 games: 1999 Indians — won division16.5 games: 1912 Giants — won pennant21 games: 2001 Mariners — won division